张龑,孙浦阳

• 1:南开大学 经济学院，天津 300071

摘要(Abstract)：

在国际贸易中,贸易双方所在地的契约环境和贸易产品的契约特征是影响贸易关系的重要因素。文章基于异质性贸易理论框架,分别从产品行业特征的内因角度和地区契约环境的外因角度研究了契约因素如何通过影响风险来作用于贸易持续期,并使用HS8分位数层面的中国海关统计数据库、世界银行营商环境调查数据库和中国工业企业数据库的匹配数据,从"企业-产品-目的地"视角进行了COX比例风险分析。研究表明:(1)地理契约特征对贸易持续期存在着显著影响,贸易双方所在地的契约环境优势对贸易持续期有着显著的促进作用;(2)地理契约特征对贸易持续期的影响因贸易产品的异质性契约特征而存在差异,良好的地区契约环境能够在更大的边际效应上降低违约风险,并能够在高契约依赖度的产品贸易中得到更好地发挥;(3)虽然我国的贸易关系数量在增加,但退出率却在逐年上升。文章从贸易持续期的角度来研究贸易平稳性,这对于我国今后如何提升对外贸易质量有着重要意义。

关键词(KeyWords)： 契约特征;违约风险;贸易持续期;生存分析

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金重点项目(71132001);国家社会科学基金项目(12BJL049);教育部人文社会科学基金重大项目(11JJD790024)

作者(Author): 张龑,孙浦阳

DOI: 10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.2016.04.005

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