政策不确定性与企业投资行为——基于省级地方官员变更的实证检验Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Behavior: Empirical Evidence Based on the Turnover of Provincial Officials
贾倩;孔祥;孙铮;
摘要(Abstract):
基于我国省级主要官员变更事件,文章检验了区域政策不确定性对企业投资行为的影响。研究发现,预期官员变更当年政策的不确定性,企业会显著减少当年投资,而这一影响主要体现在省级控制的国有企业,当经济处于上行期或管理层不具有政治身份时,换届的经济后果更加明显。进一步研究显示,官员变更会影响投资者定价,上市公司股票收益波动率显著提高。实证结果表明,地方政府政策是影响经济资源分配的重要因素,降低政策不确定性有利于本地上市公司投资效率的提高。
关键词(KeyWords): 地方官员变更;企业投资;政府干预
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金资助项目(71172141);; 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(12JJD790033);; 上海财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目(CXJJ-2011-381与CXJJ-2011-383)资助
作者(Authors): 贾倩;孔祥;孙铮;
DOI: 10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.2013.02.008
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