魏下海;林涛;张宁;刘鸿优;

• 1:华侨大学经济发展与改革研究院
• 2:南开大学经济学院
• 3:暨南大学经济学院
• 4:华南师范大学体育科学学院

摘要(Abstract)：

文章基于雾霾对人们生理健康和反应能力等方面产生不利影响从而导致个体生产率降低的理论假设,根据中国足球超级联赛2014年5月17日到2016年7月9日522场比赛的首发球员面板数据,利用距离赛场最近的空气实时监测点获得空气污染指标,采用球员在比赛过程传球次数刻画个体生产率(表现力),考察空气污染的生产率效应。研究发现:(1)空气污染会显著降低球员的传球次数,AQI每上升1%,球员传球次数会下降0.021%;PM 2.5浓度每上升1%,传球次数下降0.016%;PM10浓度每上升1%,传球次数下降0.013%。(2)空气污染的不利影响在客场比赛会被放大,在主场则不显著;高超技能可以一定程度上弱化空气污染的负向影响,球技更好的外援受空气污染影响甚微,但本土球员的负向效应很大;在不同位置(后卫、前卫、前锋),空气污染效应有所不同。(3)由于赛程是提前确定且不受球队所左右,不存在球员因空气状况主动规避比赛,因而球员暴露在任何空气状况下进行比赛具有外生性,研究结论稳健可靠。文章不仅丰富了国内关于雾霾对生产率影响的文献,而且还为呼吁社会如政府加大治霾行动提供确凿的经验证据。

关键词(KeyWords)： 空气污染;生产率;职业足球运动员;户外劳动者

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 广东省自然科学基金项目(2016A030310256);广东省自然科学基金项目(2015A030313386)

作者(Author): 魏下海;林涛;张宁;刘鸿优;

Email:

DOI: 10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.2017.07.001

参考文献(References)：

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• (1)张庆丰,[美](罗伯特·克鲁克斯Crooks)(R.):《迈向环境可持续的未来---中华人民共和国国家环境分析》,中国财政经济出版社,2012。
• (1)参见《2014年北京马拉松变成霾拉松》,2014年10月20日,新华网,http://news.xinhuanet.com/mrdx/2014-10/20/c_133727761.htm。
• (1)国内外大量媒体报告声称,空气污染导致中国足球一蹶不振。http://we.sportscn.com/viewnews-1988841.html。http://jandan.net/2016/03/09/footballers-efficiency-affected.html。http://esporte.uol.com.br/futebol/ultimas-noticias/2016/04/04/futebol-x-saude-time-chines-joga-na-2-cidade-mais-poluida-do-mundo.htm。
• (2)Zhang等(2008)发现,111个重点城市,由PM2.5污染造成死亡率提升的经济损失高达29 178.7亿美元;Xia等(2016)研究表明,2007年因PM2.5引起的致死率和致病率提升使中国遭受高达3 462.6亿元的经济损失,占GDP的1.1%。
• (3)空气污染不仅会损害呼吸系统、心肺功能健康和劳动生产活动,甚至还会影响到生命的起点,影响婴幼儿发育和居民死亡率。大量文献表明,空气污染会通过哮喘和神经系统疾病影响儿童大脑发育(Currie和Neidell,2005;Currie,2013),成为引起婴儿死亡的最危险因素。Garvey和Longo(1978)发现CO会影响婴儿大脑发育;Currie和Neidell(2005)考察了20世纪90年代美国加州空气污染治理行动,结果显示治理行动拯救了1 000个婴幼儿的性命,经济价值折合约170亿美元。Schlenker(2015)借助美国加州12个机场100Km内的600万居民数据,研究表明CO浓度提高会显著提高下风向婴幼儿哮喘病的住院率。
• (4)出勤主义是指员工因生病、压力大或其他事情而无法专心工作时还必须照常上班的情况。
• (1)本文选用离比赛场地最近的检测点的空气质量实时监测数据,监测点的数据开始于2014年5月8日,匹配到中超联赛的比赛,最早时间为2014年5月17日。
• (2)2015赛季及以前赛季的赛程按照上一赛季中超联赛最终排名,进行蛇形排列,轮转对阵。2016赛季首次摒弃了人工编排,在十大必要条件下,运用计算机对阵软件编排。十大条件详见http://sports.sina.com.cn/china/j/2016-01-27/doc-ifxnuvxc2081625.shtml。
• (3)网易中超数据直播系统使用的数据源为领先体育数据,是通过视频转播画面采集技术收集球员数据信息。领先体育数据http://www.chinakick.com/csldata.aspx,网易中超数据直播系统http://cs.sports.163.com。
• (1)优先选择比赛时间内的整点时间,如8:15pm选择9:00pm的观测值。
• (1)2015/7/5,上海上港,维达;2016/5/14上海上港,吉安。
• (2)露点(Dew point),又称露点温度(Dew point temperature),是指在固定气压下,空气中所含的气态水(即水蒸气)达到饱和(凝结成液态水)所需要降至的温度。
• (1)需要注意的是,比赛场馆集合不包含球员集合,球队集合也不包含球员集合。
• (1)PM2.5被称为细颗粒物(fine particulate matter),PM2.5到PM10间的物质被称为粗颗粒物(coarse particulate matter)。
• (1)主队球员在比赛前体内肾上腺激素活性大大增加(Wolfson和Neave,2004),将激发球员更强的精力和毫不犹豫的攻击力(Pollard等,2008)。
• (1)足球网站“financefootball”近日发布了2016年中国足球俱乐部球员年薪排行榜TOP20,上榜球员全部为外援。http://sports.sina.com.cn/china/j/2016-10-04/doc-ifxwkzyh4217323.shtml。
• (2)如来自于巴西的外援具有极强的身体控制能力和脚下功夫(foot ability)(路云亭,2015)。
• (3)法比亚诺和格乌瓦尼奥表示,他们并未感受到之前巴西媒体大肆炒作的中国“空气污染”问题。http://sports.qq.com/a/20160405/038144.html。
• (4)目前中甲排名第一、有望在下赛季升级到中超的天津权健足球队的外援剖析:造就中超空气污染效应的根本原因是本土球员水平太低。http://sports.qq.com/a/20160405/038144.html。