刘洪儒;谢家平;马洁

• 1:上海财经大学 国际工商管理学院 上海 200433
• 2:河南师范大学 商学院 河南 新乡 453007

摘要(Abstract)：

随着中国投资环境的变化,近年来跨国企业从华撤资的现象时有发生;然而,这些撤资却存在"迟滞"现象。文章从实物期权的视角,以日本的跨国企业为样本,利用Cox比例风险模型,对影响跨国企业从华撤资"迟滞"的因素进行了实证检验。研究表明:(1)所在行业的需求不确定性与投资不可逆性影响了日本跨国企业的从华撤资决策,投资不可逆性越高与需求不确定性越大,日本跨国企业从华撤资时越有可能发生"迟滞";(2)跨国企业的投资不可逆性和多元化程度对不确定性影响撤资"迟滞"具有调节作用,投资不可逆性强化了不确定性对撤资"迟滞"的正向影响,而日本跨国企业在华的多元化程度则弱化了这种影响;(3)分支机构的冗余性和灵活性对跨国企业从华撤资"迟滞"都具有正向影响,即日本跨国企业在华分支机构的冗余性和灵活性都提高了分支机构被撤出的风险。文章的研究结论不仅有助于跨国企业理性地对待东道国市场的不确定性,避免盲目地撤出东道国,而且有助于跨国企业选择合理的撤出对象,优化在东道国的分支机构组合。

关键词(KeyWords)： 实物期权;需求不确定性;投资不可逆性;日本跨国企业;从华撤资“迟滞”

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(71272015);上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2014BGL007)

作者(Author): 刘洪儒;谢家平;马洁

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