“二孩政策”与学区房溢价——基于人口政策变化的政策评价分析The “Two-child” Policy and the Premium of School District Housing:Policy Evaluation Analysis Based on the Change of Population Policy
李雪松;陈曦明;方芳;张征;
摘要(Abstract):
我国人口生育政策的调整是政府在我国经济进入中高速发展阶段之后做出的重大决策,对社会经济各个方面会产生重要影响。文章着眼于政策调整、家庭规划和政府公共产品需求,以上海市住房数据为基础,分析了我国"二孩政策"对现阶段学区房价格的影响。文章以特征回归模型为基础,讨论了人口政策变化对学区房价格的影响。研究发现,在人口新政出台后,与临近的普通住房相比,学区房的相对溢价程度更高。文章进一步采用固定边界法,发现优质学区房的溢价涨幅(约为8.6%-11.8%)高于普通学区房(约为2.49%-3.97%),充分说明在人口政策调整后,我国部分家庭对优质教育更加渴望。文章采用匹配回归进行了稳健性检验,仍支持上述研究结论。
关键词(KeyWords): “二孩政策”;学区房;双重差分模型;固定边界法
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author): 李雪松;陈曦明;方芳;张征;
Email:
DOI: 10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.2017.06.008
参考文献(References):
- [1]哈巍,吴红斌,余韧哲.学区房溢价新探——基于北京市城六区重复截面数据的实证分析[J].教育与经济,2015,(5):3-10.
- [2]胡婉旸,郑思齐,王锐.学区房的溢价究竟有多大:利用“租买不同权”和配对回归的实证估计[J].经济学(季刊),2014,(3):1195-1214.
- [3]梁文艳,林育红,刘金娟.人口变动与义务教育发展规划——基于“单独二孩”政策实施后义务教育适龄人口规模的预测[J].教育研究,2015,(3):25-34.
- [4]彭希哲,李赟,宋靓珺,等.上海市“单独两孩”生育政策实施的初步评估及展望[J].中国人口科学,2015,(4):2-13.
- [5]乔晓春.从“单独二孩”政策执行效果看未来生育政策的选择[J].中国人口科学,2015,(2):26-33.
- [6]石忆邵,王伊婷.上海市学区房价格的影响机制[J].中国土地科学,2014,(12):47-55.
- [7]石智雷,杨云彦.符合“单独二孩”政策家庭的生育意愿与生育行为[J].人口研究,2014,(5):27-40.
- [8]陶涛,杨凡,张浣珺,等.家庭幸福发展指数构建研究[J].人口研究,2014,(1):63-76.
- [9]Abadie A,Imbens G W.Large sample properties of matching estimators for average treatment effects[J].Econometrica,2006,74(1):235-267.
- [10]Abadie A,Imbens G W.Bias-corrected matching estimators for average treatment effects[J].Journal of Business&Economic Statistics,2011,29(1):1-11.
- [11]Angrist J,Lavy V,Schlosser A.Multiple experiments for the causal link between the quantity and quality of children[J].Journal of Labor Economics,2010,28(4):773-824.
- [12]Barro R J,Becker G S.Fertility choice in a model of economic growth[J].Econometrica,1989,57(2):481-501.
- [13]Bayer P,Mcmillan R.A unified framework for measuring preferences for schools and neighborhoods[J].Journal of Political Economy,2007,115(4):588-638.
- [14]Becker G S,Lewis H G.On the interaction between the quantity and quality of children[J].Journal of Political Economy,1973,81(2):S279-S288.
- [15]Black S E.Do better schools matter?Parental valuation of elementary education[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1999,114(2):577-599.
- [16]Chung I H.School choice,housing prices,and residential sorting:Empirical evidence from inter-and intra-district choice[J].Regional Science&Urban Economics,2015,52:39-49.
- [17]Fan C S.Child labor and the interaction between the quantity and quality of children[J].Southern Economic Journal,2004,71(1):21-35.
- [18]Guo R,Yi J,Zhang J.Family size,birth order,and tests of the quantity-quality model[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2016.09.006,2016.
- [19]Heckman J J,Ichimura H,Todd P E.Matching as an econometric evaluation estimator:Evidence from evaluating ajob training programme[J].Review of Economic Studies,1998,65(2):261-294.
- [20]Hondroyiannis G,Papapetrou E.Demographic transition and economic growth:Empirical evidence from Greece[J].Journal of Population Economics,2002,15(2):221-242.
- [21]Hondroyiannis G,Papapetrou E.Fertility and output in Europe:New evidence from panel cointegration analysis[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2005,27(2):143-156.
- [22]Imberman S A,Lovenheim M F.Does the market value value-added?Evidence from housing prices after apublic release of school and teacher value-added[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2016,91:104-121.
- [23]Kane T J,Riegg S K,Staiger D O.School quality,neighborhoods,and housing prices[J].American Law and Economics Review,2006,8(2):183-212.
- [24]La V.Capitalization of school quality into housing prices:Evidence from Boston Public School district walk zones[J].Economics Letters,2015,134:102-106.
- [25]Li H,Zhang J,Zhu Y.The quantity-quality trade-off of children in a developing country:Identification using Chinese twins[J].Demography,2008,45(1):223-243.
- [26]Rosenbaum P R,Rubin D B.The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects[J].Biometrika,1983,70(1):41-55.
- [27]Rosenzweig M R,Zhang J.Do population control policies induce more human capital investment?Twins,birth weight and China’s“One-Child”Policy[J].Review of Economic Studies,2009,76(3):1149-1174.
- [28]Ross C T,Mulder M B,Winterhalder B,et al.Evidence for quantity-quality trade-offs,sex-specific parental investment,and variance compensation in Colonized Agta Foragers undergoing demographic transition[J].Evolution&Human Behavior,2016,37(5):350-365.
- [29]Ross S,Yinger J.Sorting and voting:A review of the literature on urban public finance[A].Cheshire P,Mills E S.Handbook of regional&urban economics(Vol.3)[C].Amsterdam:Elsevier,1999.